A Comparison of Case Fatality Risk of COVID-19 between Singapore and Japan.
Identifieur interne : 000322 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000321; suivant : 000323A Comparison of Case Fatality Risk of COVID-19 between Singapore and Japan.
Auteurs : Taishi Kayano [Japon] ; Hiroshi Nishiura [Japon]Source :
- Journal of clinical medicine [ 2077-0383 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
The crude case fatality risk (CFR) for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Singapore is remarkably small. We aimed to estimate the unbiased CFR by age for Singapore and Japan and compare these estimates by calculating the standardized mortality ratio (SMR). Age-specific CFRs for COVID-19 were estimated in real time, adjusting for the delay from illness onset to death. The SMR in Japan was estimated by using the age distribution of the Singapore population. Among cases aged 60-69 years and 70-79 years, the age-specific CFRs in Singapore were estimated as 1.84% (95% confidence interval: 0.46-4.72%) and 5.57% (1.41-13.97%), respectively, and those in Japan as 5.52% (4.55-6.62%) and 15.49% (13.81-17.27%), respectively. The SMR of COVID-19 in Japan, when compared with Singapore as the baseline, was estimated to be 1.46 (1.09-2.96). The overall CFR for Singapore is lower than that for Japan. It is possible that the circulating variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Singapore causes a milder clinical course of COVID-19 infection compared with other strains. If infection with a low-virulence SARS-CoV-2 variant provides protection against infection by high-virulence strains, the existence of such a strain is encouraging news for the many countries struggling to suppress this virus.
DOI: 10.3390/jcm9103326
PubMed: 33081241
PubMed Central: PMC7602812
Affiliations:
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and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (CREST), Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Saitama 332-0012</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Yoshida-Konoe-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Yoshida-Konoe-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Kyoto</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Kyoto</settlement><region type="prefecture">Région du Kansai</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (CREST), Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (CREST), Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Saitama 332-0012</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of clinical medicine</title><idno type="ISSN">2077-0383</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The crude case fatality risk (CFR) for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Singapore is remarkably small. We aimed to estimate the unbiased CFR by age for Singapore and Japan and compare these estimates by calculating the standardized mortality ratio (SMR). Age-specific CFRs for COVID-19 were estimated in real time, adjusting for the delay from illness onset to death. The SMR in Japan was estimated by using the age distribution of the Singapore population. Among cases aged 60-69 years and 70-79 years, the age-specific CFRs in Singapore were estimated as 1.84% (95% confidence interval: 0.46-4.72%) and 5.57% (1.41-13.97%), respectively, and those in Japan as 5.52% (4.55-6.62%) and 15.49% (13.81-17.27%), respectively. The SMR of COVID-19 in Japan, when compared with Singapore as the baseline, was estimated to be 1.46 (1.09-2.96). The overall CFR for Singapore is lower than that for Japan. It is possible that the circulating variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Singapore causes a milder clinical course of COVID-19 infection compared with other strains. If infection with a low-virulence SARS-CoV-2 variant provides protection against infection by high-virulence strains, the existence of such a strain is encouraging news for the many countries struggling to suppress this virus.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">33081241</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>01</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">2077-0383</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>9</Volume><Issue>10</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Oct</Month><Day>16</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Journal of clinical medicine</Title><ISOAbbreviation>J Clin Med</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>A Comparison of Case Fatality Risk of COVID-19 between Singapore and Japan.</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">E3326</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.3390/jcm9103326</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>The crude case fatality risk (CFR) for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Singapore is remarkably small. We aimed to estimate the unbiased CFR by age for Singapore and Japan and compare these estimates by calculating the standardized mortality ratio (SMR). Age-specific CFRs for COVID-19 were estimated in real time, adjusting for the delay from illness onset to death. The SMR in Japan was estimated by using the age distribution of the Singapore population. Among cases aged 60-69 years and 70-79 years, the age-specific CFRs in Singapore were estimated as 1.84% (95% confidence interval: 0.46-4.72%) and 5.57% (1.41-13.97%), respectively, and those in Japan as 5.52% (4.55-6.62%) and 15.49% (13.81-17.27%), respectively. The SMR of COVID-19 in Japan, when compared with Singapore as the baseline, was estimated to be 1.46 (1.09-2.96). The overall CFR for Singapore is lower than that for Japan. It is possible that the circulating variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Singapore causes a milder clinical course of COVID-19 infection compared with other strains. If infection with a low-virulence SARS-CoV-2 variant provides protection against infection by high-virulence strains, the existence of such a strain is encouraging news for the many countries struggling to suppress this virus.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Kayano</LastName><ForeName>Taishi</ForeName><Initials>T</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Yoshida-Konoe-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (CREST), Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Nishiura</LastName><ForeName>Hiroshi</ForeName><Initials>H</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0003-0941-8537</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Yoshida-Konoe-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (CREST), Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><GrantList CompleteYN="Y"><Grant><GrantID>19HA1003, 20CA2024, and 20HA2007</GrantID><Agency>Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>19fk0108104 and JP20fk0108140</GrantID><Agency>Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>17H04701</GrantID><Agency>Japan Society for the Promotion of Science</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>NA</GrantID><Agency>Inamori Foundation</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>JPMJCR1413</GrantID><Agency>Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology</Agency><Country></Country></Grant></GrantList><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016421">Editorial</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>16</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Switzerland</Country><MedlineTA>J Clin Med</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101606588</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2077-0383</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">emerging infectious disease</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">mortality</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">severity</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">statistical estimation</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">virulence</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>13</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>14</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate 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